A Tajik Tinderbox

Discussion in 'UK and World News' started by nipowers, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. nipowers

    nipowers New Member

    An armed confrontation between India and Pakistan has been on since 1947. There was a time when those countries were parts of one big state formation and were close. However, this wasn't a contribution for mutual understanding and good neighborly intercourse. It depended not only on religious differences, but also on some territorial reclamations. Kashmir has been a stumbling stone for many decades.

    Up to now, every year both India and Pakistan still balance on the edge of a nuclear war. Every year, both military men and civilians die on the Indo-Pakistan border. Every year, Defense Ministers of both nations brandish with their nuclear footballs, threatening to push the red button. Every year, the two countries little by little increase their nuclear armory, and expand the infrastructure to make their nuclear weapons better. Both Indian and Pakistan are discussed in the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) report as countries that started to extend new systems of nuclear weapons deliverance. Modernization of nuclear weapons continues; number of peacekeepers declines: New SIPRI Yearbook out now | SIPRI At the moment, the region is like a powder warehouse, which is ready to blow up because of a single spark.

    That's why far from making mutually profitable bargains with the two unrelenting opponents at the same time, the world is afraid of even getting in a slight contact with them. However, this attitude doesn't refer to Tajikistan. As it turned out the post-soviet state had carried out both a productive meeting with representatives of India in 2014.


    And similar negotiations with a Pakistani group in 2016. Imgur


    What's more, the two cases were not about an innocuous trade or cultural cooperation, but about an active military interaction.

    It's easy to imagine the reaction of the Pakistani highest command if they find out that the Tajik pilots' (who are taking training in Pakistan) military hardware will be serviced by Pakistan's unrelenting enemies. The same for Indian authorities, what if they get the second agreement, the reaction will be remarkable as well. The both documents are classified, but as we can see it wasn't an obstacle for them to be leaked to the web. The Tajik command is hardly ignorant of the leak. However, they don't hurry to ring the alarm bell. Obviously, the Tajik authorities are naively considering themselves to be great politicians who have made to work for themselves two influent nations, and it's not supposed they're at the risk of being between Scylla and Charybdis in the epicenter of a nuclear collapse.

    Obviously, the Dushanbe's policy improvidence may cause catastrophic outcomes both on the regional and the global levels. The fact that Tajikistan has discredited itself as a partner is the most insignificant of possible outcomes. It's much more terrifying that the moldering for many years war will heat up, and other Tajikistan's nuclear neighbors may be involved in it. For instance, Russia, the USSR successor state, may get involved. It's known that the USSR took part in the Indo-Pakistani war in 1971 because of the participation of American militaries. The conflict between the intelligence services and fleets turned into an escalation of the Soviet-American struggle. Well, it will be a childish game comparing the fire, which will blaze up after publishing these documents.

    It's interesting whether Dushanbe realizes this. If it does, the fact of making the two conflicting scandalous bargains is a conscious provocation. It's kind of a serious military crime. In case Tajik authorities don't get what a Pandora box they're about to open, a question on competence of people who are governing the country located in such an instable and risky region is about to rise.
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