Post Brexit Ireland?

Discussion in 'Society, Culture and Politics' started by kirkdale, Nov 17, 2017.

  1. kirkdale

    kirkdale Regular Member

    While debate rages over trade deals and divorce settlements, the question of the Irish border is a real issue, it's going to directly impact on large communities.

    How do you see this progressing? The return to hard borders? Reunification talks? Special status for the six counties within the EU zone?

    I have family and friends living closely on both sides of the border, despite the troubles, the economy is so interlinked the border is invisible. Communities on the south of the border are suffering financial problems due to the weak pound already.

    This is an issue that will effect us on the mainland UK but could have truly horrendous effects in Ireland. What are your views?
    Nazz likes this.
  2. IIP

    IIP Guest

    hopefully it will lead to a United Ireland, which is a very distinct possibility, as the unionist of Northern Ireland start to realise there's money to made.
    there will only be a hard border in name, even during the war the border was weak, nothing will change in the short term of brexit, there will still be free movement of people,
    the effect will not be felt on the mainland, issues concerning Ireland rarely have any real effect on the mainland.
    Nazz likes this.
  3. OP

    kirkdale Regular Member

    My view is biased, I see it as hopefully leading to unification. I'm not sure the unionists would take that lying down? (bit of understatement there!)

    I think the EU will use this issue cynically in negotiations, they know the sensitivity the issue touches on. As much as the tories will try to silence the issue, it remains a very strong card in the EU hand.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
    Nazz likes this.
  4. IIP

    IIP Guest

    indeed it does and the E.U will use it, the consensus to a united Ireland is growing among the unionist population, the diehards unionist will never agree but I believe they will eventually get out voted.
    kirkdale likes this.
  5. IIP

    IIP Guest

    I never thought I'd live to see my dream of a United Ireland, but brexit has turned that dream into a very real reality.
    Uncle Mort and kirkdale like this.
  6. OP

    kirkdale Regular Member

    I think it makes it a much more likely possibility, but I still don't see the unionists throwing their hands in so easily?
    I find it bizarre that years of war between two diametrically opposed factions could fizzle out into victory due to purely financial reasons!
    Strange times.
    IIP likes this.
  7. classic33

    classic33 Senior Member

    Ian Paisley Jnr would have his father turning in his grave. Actually advising people to apply for Irish Passports rather than the UK one.

    @IIP. I don't think a United Ireland will happen in our lifetimes. A bigger Ireland, but not one that take in The Six Counties completly. Possibly four out of the six, but not all six. Look at the population of The Six and compare that to the 28 in Ireland. A United Ireland that can't afford to look after the extra that would come their way, would be a recipe for disaster.

    As for the Border it's just a line on a map, which contains two thirds of the Province.
  8. pubrunner

    pubrunner Active Member

    I suspect you're correct . . . . . . . though I hope otherwise.

    I've always had a fondness for Ireland, having lived there before the troubles started. We would probably have stayed there, as my parents loved the place, but for the fact my father got offered a better job with ICI in Yorkshire. I remember that my Uncle came over to visit us and he never returned to England; he married an Irish girl and became a professor at Belfast University and 55 years on, he is still very happy there.

    What always struck me, was the strength of religious feelings on both sides. On our last visit, my missus and I were just north of Belfast and trying to find a route back to where we were staying, when we got caught in very heavy traffic - so we just followed the other cars. My missus followed the other vehicles into what appeared to be a massive venue, with a huge carpark that was filled with coaches, minibuses and cars; it was like going to a very well supported football match, but people were there to go to the 'Church of God' - I've never seen anything like it, there could have been a thousand there.

    Economically, I think that a united Ireland has enormous potential; however that will only be best achieved where there is a lasting peace.
  9. OP

    kirkdale Regular Member

    I have always thought a united Ireland was inevitable. It was just a question of time. I doubted it would have been in my lifetime.
    We live in bizarre times; English people who hate Republicans, now want Irish passports. Unionists who despise the free states, will apply for them.
    Brexit has divided Britain, but we should remember that Ireland will be the only place with a border between the EU super state and us.
  10. Jezza

    Jezza Regular Member

    Ireland being Ireland and the Irish knowing what a both pound and a Euro will buy..
    I envisage a hard border between the Free State and Ulster with lots of lucrative smuggling in both directions -dependent upon the state of each currency.
  11. Nazz

    Nazz Member

    Doubt it would have anything with nationality, human nature is to try and bend the system to your own advantage. So if those conditions exist /are created then people will try to take advantage (tax avoidance is similar)
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2017
  12. IIP

    IIP Guest

    smuggling is what part funded the war, now it funds the spanish property market.
    kirkdale and Jezza like this.
  13. stowie

    stowie Member

    For movement of people, a "non-border border" would probably work. The UK would have to accept that EU citizens could enter the UK without immigration checks via Ireland, so would need to rely upon checking status when people are offered work, houses, bank accounts and so on. This would put even more onus on business and public institutions being immigration check-points, but it is doable. As it would be for UK citizens in Ireland.

    For goods though, that is another story. Brexit has created a new boundary to the EU customs union with as many crossing points as the whole of the Eastern border put together. Contrary to what some politicians might say, we cannot fall back on the Common Travel Area for this conundrum - yes it did work before the EU, but that was at a time when we weren't going to be faced with one country in the Customs Union, and one outside.

    I cannot see a way around this to provide a seamless border for goods, and from the lack of ideas from the Brexit leaders, neither can they. Ultimately, a goods check will be needed in some form or another. Electronic customs declarations seems a good solution, but only for goods that are legally being transported back and forth - if there are absolutely no checks as transport moves between countries then there is no way to stop goods moving illegally across the border. Ultimately it may be decided that managing the goods at the English/Scottish/Welsh port before shipment is good enough, but even this is fraught with difficulties.

    The EU has to maintain the integrity of the customs union or the whole thing becomes a farce. Unless the UK doesn't diverge at all from the EU customs union terms (and therefore eschews all those trade deals that are supposedly in the pipeline), then the an unpoliced border will make it very difficult to manage cross border goods transfer between two divergent systems.
  14. Aitch

    Aitch Member

    From the Irish Independent.
    "Irish officials were deeply unimpressed by UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's grasp of the dangers posed by Brexit, the Irish Independent understands. In a worrying development, civil servants frequently had to clarify the Tory politician's statements during a series of meetings in Dublin. One source warned he "has no idea of the practical ramifications" of the UK's decision to leave the European Union. "He wants Brexit and wants it now. He doesn't care if it's hard or soft. He just wants out," a well-placed source said. Anglo-Irish relations are now at one of their lowest ebbs in modern history."
  15. Bromptonaut

    Bromptonaut Rohan Man

    As Ken Clarke says in his political memoir 'A Kind of Blue':

    Boris has many strengths but attention to detail is not one of them

    Noticeably he doesn't seek to particularise BoJo's strengths!!!
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